A high-stakes gamble goes awry

The STaC results from the Monday game are in, and we missed winning the district by 2%, which means that this high-stakes gamble on the last round was worth 4 masterpoints. I held:

S

South

♠

xxx

♥

9xxx

♦

AJxx

♣

xx

This was the auction:

W

West

N

Pard

E

East

S

Me

—

1NT¹

Pass

Pass

2♥

Dbl²

Pass

?

(1) 12-15

(2) takeout with a good 14 or 15 points

What would be your call?

For me, it was a tough decision. Partner might have 4 spades and 3 diamonds for his double. In which case, 2S is the right call. Or he might also have only 3 spades and 4 diamonds in which case 3D is the right call. Finally, it appears from my 5 points that the points are evenly divided and no 2-level contract may make. Were we trading a +50 for a -50?

I think I had convinced myself. This was going to be a high-stakes gamble: +100 or -470. A matchpoint top or a matchpoint bottom. I passed.

Alas, 2H was cold on the hand as the cards lay:

.

N

Pard

♠

Qxx

♥

Ax

♦

K109xx

♣

AQx

.

W

West

♠

Kx

♥

KQxxxx

♦

Qx

♣

Kxx

Lead: ♦10

E

East

♠

AJ10xx

♥

J

♦

xx

♣

Jxxxx

.

S

Me

♠

xxx

♥

9xxx

♦

AJxx

♣

xx

.

We got 2 diamonds, 2 clubs and a heart (yes, if I had arranged to give myself a club ruff, we could have beaten it). 2H doubled and made was a matchpoint zero. We had been at 72% heading into the last round; the zero dropped us to 68%.  68% was enough to win our 9-table club game, but we needed 70% to win the district.

2S, which would have been my second choice, doesn't look like a picnic either and -150 would also have been a bottom.  3D goes down only one, and -50 would have been a top, since most pairs were in 2H making for -110.  2Hx and down 1 for +100 would also have been a top.